2018 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM/ICM)

Background&Problem

Energy policy in the U.S. is largely managed at the state level, with geography and industry influencing energy needs. In 1970, 12 western states formed the Western Interstate Energy Compact (WIEC) to collaborate on nuclear energy. Interstate compacts are agreements where states cooperate on shared goals.Four U.S.-Mexico border states—California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas—want to create a new energy compact to increase renewable energy use. They need data analysis and modeling to set realistic clean energy goals for their agreement.

The detailed rules for the 2018 MCM Problem C can be found in the 2018 MCM Problem C

Problem Solution

Our solution mainly contains follow parts:

• Assessing Renewable Energy Use
  Metric (IR Index): Developed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), combining four factors. Visualization: Line charts track renewable energy production and mix over time.
• Comprehensive Analysis
  Index α: Merges production data and renewable energy share into one clear indicator.
  Factor Comparison: A three-layer diagram identifies climate, industry, and population impacts on each state's energy profile.
• Ranking States
  TOPSIS Method: Ranked states by comparing their energy solutions to an "ideal" scenario using five criteria (e.g., solar, wind output).
• Future Predictions (2025 & 2050)
  Models Used: Gray Model, Linear Regression, and Time Series Forecasting.
  Outcome: Slow growth in renewables; minimal improvements expected without changes.
• Setting Renewable Energy Targets
  Energy Potential Model: Identifies each state's maximum renewable potential (e.g., sunny states focus on solar).
  Distribution Plans: Multi-objective programming optimizes targets to maximize clean energy use.
  Transmission Solutions: Address grid upgrades to share energy across states efficiently.
• Recommended Actions
  Utilize Conditions: Leverage each state's strengths (e.g., wind, solar).
  Multi-Development: Invest in diverse renewables (solar + wind + hydro).
  Big Net: Build a shared interstate grid to distribute clean energy effectively.

The detailed paper can be found in the Renewable Tomorrow

Achievement&Acknowledgement

After initial preparation and collaborative learning, my teammates CHEN Hailong and LI Zongzhi and I underwent four consecutive days of intensive mathematical modeling analysis and paper writing during the competition. Our solution achieved a global ranking within the top 30% and was awarded the Honorable Mention.